Articles

March 1st Market Commentary

March 1st Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 75 points as stocks are kicking off March with an upbeat reaction to PCE data that showed inflation continued to cool, easing worries the Federal Reserve would get more reason to hold off from interest rate cuts. But further scrutiny has highlighted signs of “sticky” inflation that will be harder to shift.

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February 29th Market Commentary

February 29th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 40 points as investors digested a crucial inflation reading key to assessing how quickly the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates and whether equities’ recent rally will revive. Today’s economic reports showed that personal income increased a hefty 1.0% month-over-month in January, bolstered by the 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment for social security recipients. Nominal personal spending was up just 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. Real personal spending was down 0.1%, the result of a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the PCE Price Index. The core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4%, as expected.

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February 28th Market Commentary

February 28th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is down 65 points as caution prevailed ahead of a crucial inflation report that will guide expectations for interest rate cuts. Investors have spent this week counting down to the PCE inflation reading tomorrow, seen as key in determining how quickly the Federal Reserve will start making rate cuts. The second estimate for Q4 GDP showed a slight downward revision to 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%) from the advance estimate of 3.3%, primarily due to a downward revision to private inventory investment.

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February 27th Market Commentary

February 27th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is down 150 points as investors regroup after the tumultuous run-up last week and as focus sharpens on the health of the US economy. Looming over investors is the PCE index report due Thursday, a key inflation input into the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting decisions. Given the market’s preoccupation with the timing of a rate cut, the PCE print is seen as a potential catalyst for stocks to move in either direction. In the meantime, consumers appear less confident about the US economy.

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February 26th Market Commentary

February 26th Market Commentary

MBS prices are down about 4/32 this morning while the DOW is up 10 points after closing out a dizzying week at record highs as investors braced for a looming inflation update that could put that rally to the test. Today’s lone economic report showed that new home sales increased 1.5% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 690,000) from a downwardly revised 651,000 (from 664,000) in December. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 1.8%. The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales activity was relatively soft in January, as the monthly increase was a byproduct of the downward revision to December’s new home sales data.

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