MBS prices are up about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 40 points after President Trump unveiled more tariff letters directed at US trading partners, while AI chipmaker Nvidia became the first company to ever touch a $4 trillion market cap. Trump unveiled more notices with tariff rates ranging from 20%-30% to countries such as the Philippines, Libya, Algeria, and Iraq. July 9 marks the official end to his pause on imposing “reciprocal” tariffs announced in April. The president has reaffirmed the new Aug. 1 deadline, saying “no extensions will be granted” to countries that have not struck deals before then. Uncertainty over tariffs’ impact has divided the Federal Reserve, and investors could get more insight into the debate in minutes from the Fed’s June meeting due later in the day. At that meeting, policymakers held interest rates steady, leading traders to bet that two rate cuts this year are likely. The volume of mortgage applications in the US soared by 9.4% from the previous week in the first week of July 2025, the most in one month, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association. It was the third consecutive weekly growth in application volumes, the longest streak since early December 2024, as benchmark mortgage rates softened to their lowest since April. Applications for a contract to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, jumped by 9% from the previous week and 56% from the corresponding period of the previous year. In turn, applications for a mortgage to purchase a home also rose by 9% on the week, translating to a 25% increase on an annual basis.

MBS prices are down about 6/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 170 points as Wall Street weighed President Trump’s threat of stiff tariffs on key trading partners against his three-week reprieve on the return of sweeping “Liberation Day” duties. He has moved his July 9 deadline for the resumption of “reciprocal” tariff rates to Aug. 1, giving countries three extra weeks to negotiate trade deals with the US. His comments come amid investor speculation that Trump might once again delay the timeline or that he will eventually dial back on his trade threats. Stock benchmarks in Japan and South Korea closed higher this morning, despite Trump’s threat to start imposing 25% duties on imports from those countries in August. Another 12 US trading partners received letters laying out tariffs of up to 40% on Monday, with Malaysia, South Africa, and Indonesia among them. In corporate news, Amazon shares slid around 2% as its Prime Day deals kicked off. The e-commerce giant has extended the event to four days this year, with investors on watch for signs that tariff costs are pushing up price tags. Elsewhere, Wall Street expects a quiet week in terms of economic releases and earnings. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting are due on Wednesday, while Delta’s results on Thursday signal the return of earnings season.

MBS prices are down about 6/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 170 points as Wall Street weighed President Trump’s threat of stiff tariffs on key trading partners against his three-week reprieve on the return of sweeping “Liberation Day” duties. He has moved his July 9 deadline for the resumption of “reciprocal” tariff rates to Aug. 1, giving countries three extra weeks to negotiate trade deals with the US. His comments come amid investor speculation that Trump will eventually dial back on his trade threats. Stock benchmarks in Japan and South Korea closed higher this morning, despite Trump’s threat to start imposing 25% duties on imports from those countries in August. Another 12 US trading partners received letters laying out tariffs of up to 40% on Monday, with Malaysia, South Africa, and Indonesia among them. In corporate news, Amazon shares slid around 2% as its Prime Day deals kicked off. The e-commerce giant has extended the event to four days this year, with investors on watch for signs that tariff costs are pushing up price tags. Elsewhere, Wall Street expects a quiet week in terms of economic releases and earnings. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting are due on Wednesday, while Delta’s results on Thursday signal the return of earnings season.

MBS prices are down about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 500 points as President Trump threatened tariffs on US trading partners, including moving forward with 25% levies on imports from Japan and South Korea starting in August. Meanwhile, Trump said late Sunday that any country aligning itself with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS” will face an additional 10% tariff. “There will be no exceptions to this policy,” he said in a post to social media. The warning came after BRICS — a group of countries including key US trading partners China and India — criticized Trump’s tariff policy at its summit at the weekend. The moves have ramped up already-high trade tensions as nations race to clinch tariff deals ahead of Trump’s self-imposed deadline of July 9, when his “pause” on steep April tariffs would go back into effect. Global markets have been bracing for that potential shock, with the US only having reached deals with the UK and Vietnam, as well as a framework toward an agreement with China.

MBS prices are down about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 350 points as investors digested a bevy of economic reports including a stronger-than-expected June jobs report that dampened hopes for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut soon. Ther export featured a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% and a relatively solid 147,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls. That’s not to say there weren’t points of weakness in the report. There were, namely the participation rate coming down, the percentage of employees unemployed for 27 weeks or more going up, and avg. weekly hours dipping to 34.2 from 34.3. The key takeaway, though, is that it wasn’t weak enough to convince the market that a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting is squarely on the table. On the contrary, that is looking more like a remote possibility, with the fed funds futures market pricing in only a 4.7% probability of a 25 basis-point cut at the meeting versus 23.8% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28 decreased by 4,000 to 233,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 240,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 21 were unchanged at 1.964 million. The key takeaway from the report is the same as before: businesses are not busily laying off workers, but it has become more challenging for workers who have been laid off to find a new job.