MBS prices are up about 2/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 40 points and looking to build on yesterday’s rally fueled by reassuring signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank held interest rates steady. The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged was expected on Wall Street, but markets rallied, driven by a sense of relief that prior forecasts for two rate cuts this year held up. Doubts had been rising about the path to rate cuts amid concerns the US economy might buckle under President Trump’s broad plans for tariffs. Today’s economic reports showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15 increased by 2,000 to 223,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000).

MBS prices are down about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 250 points as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, seeking insights into the economy in the face of tariff risks. The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to hold interest rates steady in its policy decision this morning (11:00 am Pacific). But investors are still looking to policymakers to provide a catalyst as stocks attempt to recover from their recent sharp sell-off. Mortgage applications in the US fell by 6.2% in the second week of March, trimming the cumulative 37% surge from the two previous weeks, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

MBS prices are up about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 380 points following two days of gains as investors concerned about an economic slowdown looked to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for insight. Today’s economic reports showed that total housing starts increased 11.2% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.385 million), with single-unit starts up 11.4%. Building permits were down 1.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million. Single-unit permits were down 0.2%. The key takeaway from the report is that starts activity was bolstered by the return of better weather, which was reflected in the 18.3% increase in housing starts in the South region (they were down 23.0% in January).

MBS prices are up about 1/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 380 points despite downbeat data and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that added to worries about the economy ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. Bessent inflamed those worries yesterday when he told NBC that he’s not worried about the recent slump in stocks, saying “corrections are healthy.” He added that there are “no guarantees” the US will avoid recession. Today’s economic reports showed that retail sales increased 0.2% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) following a downwardly revised 1.2% decline (from -0.9%) in January. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following a 0.6% decline (from -0.4%) in January. The key takeaway from the report is that control group retail sales, which exclude auto, gasoline station, building materials, and food services sales, jumped 1.0% month-over-month following a downwardly revised 1.0% decline (from -0.8%) in January.

MBS prices are down about 2/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 550 points as investors stayed on watch for the next move in an escalating trade war. Wall Street spirits brightened as Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer backed off a threat to block a funding bill aimed at averting a government shutdown at the weekend. At the same time, gold broke above $3,000 an ounce for the first time amid warnings about the economic damage from Trump’s tariffs. Yesterday, Trump said he didn’t plan to “bend at all” in the escalating round of tit-for-tat tariffs with America’s biggest trading partners. Today’s lone economic report showed that the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March dropped to 57.9 (Briefing.com consensus 65.6) from the final reading of 64.7 for February, marking the third straight drop in sentiment.