First Look Market Commentary

April 15th Market Commentary

April 15th Market Commentary

MBS prices are down about 13/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 160 points as yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries jumped to their highest level since November on Monday after stronger-than-expected retail sales data from March suggested the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates this year. The hotter-than-expected reading, in which retail sales rose 0.7% last month, more than double the 0.3% expected by economists polled by Reuters, followed data last week that suggested inflation remains stickier than markets had expected.

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April 12th Market Commentary

April 12th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 7/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 385 points as techs lost their winning ways, and as investors reeled from the banking sector’s mixed results to kick off earnings season. Investors are scrutinizing quarterly results from Wall Street’s big banks to assess the potential impact if interest rates remain higher than expected this year.

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April 11th Market Commentary

April 11th Market Commentary

MBS prices are down about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 120 points after a cooler-than-expected reading on producer prices helped soothe investor worries stemmed by Wednesday’s surprise uptick in consumer prices. The March Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) after increasing by 0.6% in February. The key takeaway from the report is that even with the smaller than expected month-over-month increases, the year-over-year growth rates for PPI and core PPI accelerated.

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April 10th Market Commentary

April 10th Market Commentary

MBS prices are down about 22/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 490 points after a key inflation report showed an unexpected uptick in consumer prices last month. Total CPI was up 0.4% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%). The key takeaway from the report is that the yr/yr reading of headline CPI accelerated for the second consecutive month, which will boost expectations for ongoing hawkishness from FOMC officials, in turn pressuring expectations for a rate cut in June.

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April 9th Market Commentary

April 9th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 120 points as investors bide their time until a key inflation report lands and potentially sheds light on the path of interest rates Stocks have become marooned ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index tomorrow, seen as a pivotal point for a market facing a slower next leg higher after a strong first quarter. Investors have become increasingly less convinced the Federal Reserve will deliver on the three rate cuts it has projected for this year, given the persistent show of strength in the US economy.

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