First Look Market Commentary

April 21st Market Commentary
MBS prices are down about 12/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 1,200 points as President Trump hurled more social media insults toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking concerns of Fed independence at a time when markets are still reacting to the president’s whipsawing tariff policy. As Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer wrote in our preview of the week, the stock market remains largely at the mercy of Trump’s tariffs. Different headlines and shifts in narratives have driven big market swings over the past several weeks, with all three indexes down over 5% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” event. Meanwhile, investors are grappling with a growing concern: Trump’s bluster around removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for allegedly keeping interest rates too high, with his latest insult posted on Monday morning, warning that the economy could slow “unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, now.” Trump’s new focus on Powell comes after the Fed chief delivered a stark warning about the potential effects of tariffs on the economy.

April 21st Market Commentary
MBS prices are down about 12/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 1,200 points as President Trump hurled more social media insults toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, sparking concerns of Fed independence at a time when markets are still reacting to the president’s whipsawing tariff policy. As Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer wrote in our preview of the week, the stock market remains largely at the mercy of Trump’s tariffs. Different headlines and shifts in narratives have driven big market swings over the past several weeks, with all three indexes down over 5% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” event. Meanwhile, investors are grappling with a growing concern: Trump’s bluster around removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for allegedly keeping interest rates too high, with his latest insult posted on Monday morning, warning that the economy could slow “unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, now.” Trump’s new focus on Powell comes after the Fed chief delivered a stark warning about the potential effects of tariffs on the economy.

April 17th Market Commentary
MBS prices are down about 10/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 300 points as investors eyed potential progress on trade talks and President Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell after his stark picture of the economy under tariffs. Powell, speaking in Chicago, issued his starkest warning yet on how tariffs could affect the US economy. The Fed chair said the central bank would likely face a “challenging scenario,” considering he expects the levies to exacerbate inflation and slow economic growth. Powell also threw cold water on hopes the central bank would imminently slash interest rates as tariffs roll in, saying Fed officials will “wait for greater clarity” on Trump’s trade policy.

April 16th Market Commentary
MBS prices are up about 6/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 270 points after Nvidia revealed costly new curbs on chip exports to China, and investors grappled with uncertainty over President Trump’s trade policy. A new filing from Nvidia this morning showed that the US government has required licenses for exports to China of the company’s H20 artificial intelligence chip. The chip giant said the move would result in $5.5 billion in charges. A similar filing from AMD said the company expects to incur costs up to $800 million from the new export controls, prompting shares to dive 7%. Meanwhile, we are awaiting a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this afternoon as investors search for any updates on how the shifting tariff picture may be impacting the central bank’s outlook. In an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance yesterday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett said he expects to see “substantial clarity” on tariffs with major US trading partners, excluding China, over the next 90 days. For its part, China said Wednesday it is open to US talks, but only under certain conditions.

April 15th Market Commentary
MBS prices are up about 10/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 50 points as investors considered the latest developments on President Trump’s tariffs, including a potential auto sector reprieve and a concrete step toward new semiconductor and pharmaceutical duties. Today’s economic reports showed that U.S. import prices unexpectedly fell in March, pulled down by decreasing costs for energy products, the latest indication that inflation was subsiding before President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs came into effect. The report from the Labor Department on Tuesday added to March’s benign consumer and producer prices data. Economists expect tame readings in March in the key inflation measures tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2% target.