First Look Market Commentary
MBS prices are up about 8/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 55 points but poised for a weekly loss having sold off after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Markets turned wary as they assessed the impact on consumer and business demand from the Fed’s message that it would keep borrowing costs high to quell inflation. The central bank’s chair, Jerome Powell, also did little to bolster hopes the US economy would avoid recession. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury steadied after hitting its highest level in over 15 years yesterday.
MBS prices are down about 10/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 215 points as Wall Street fretted about the hawkish message sent out by the Federal Reserve alongside its decision to hold interest rates steady. After combing through the central bank’s forecast, investors believe its policymakers see interest rates staying “higher for longer.” The debate is over just how long that “longer” will be, given the central bank signaled another hike at one of its final two meetings this year. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for a Fed rate cut to the fourth quarter of 2024. Today’s economic reports showed that initial claims for the week ending September 16 declined by 20,000 to just 201,000, hitting their lowest level since January.
MBS prices are up about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 200 points as Wall Street waits to find out whether the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady as expected at the wrap-up of its meeting later. Traders overwhelmingly believe the Fed won’t hike rates, pricing in a 99% chance of a pause in its tightening campaign, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Mortgage applications in the US jumped 5.4% in the week ending September 15th, 2023, the first rise in three weeks, and the biggest since mid-June, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association data showed.
MBS prices are down about 3/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 250 points as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting began this morning as the path forward for interest rates remains in focus amid the Fed’s fight against inflation. With investor bets now pricing in a 99% chance the Fed will hold rates steady, according to the CME. Today’s economic reports showed that there was a lack of growth in housing starts in August.
MBS prices are up about 2/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 80 points as Wall Street fixed its focus on an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting where the central bank will issue its next interest rate decision. The meeting follows new economic data that showed easing core inflation and a cooling labor market, setting the stage for what the market and the broader public should expect for the Fed’s interest rate policy for the rest of the year and beyond. The Fed is scheduled to meet tomorrow and Wednesday, with the central bank planning to release its latest policy decision on Wednesday at 11 am PT.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will pause its rate hikes next rose to 99% on Monday, up from 92% a week ago. Today’s lone economic report showed that the NAHB Housing Market Index in the United States declined for a second month to 45 in September 2023, the lowest in five months.