First Look Market Commentary

May 17th Market Commentary

May 17th Market Commentary

MBS prices are down about 5/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 15 points as Wall Street set up another bid to reach bullish milestones as investors dithered over the odds for rate cuts. Today’s light economic and corporate calendar leaves few jumping-off points for the Dow to make another go at crossing its key juncture, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have their own fresh records within reach. That puts the spotlight on appearances by the Fed’s Mary Daly and Christopher Waller today.

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May 16th Market Commentary

May 16th Market Commentary

MBS prices are down about 4/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 20 points after a record-setting rally as signs of cooling inflation continued to spur bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Trader bets on a Fed rate cut in September rose to over 70%, per the CME FedWatch Tool, amid rising speculation about an easing as soon as July. Today’s bevy of economic reports showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending May 11 decreased by 10,000 to 222,000 (Briefing.com consensus 218,000).

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May 15th Market Commentary

May 15th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 10/32 this morning while the DOW is up about 200 points as a soft reading on consumer prices fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than expected. U.S. Treasuries have also rallied in reaction to this morning’s batch of data, which included a slightly cooler-than-expected headline CPI for April, below-consensus Retail Sales, and a weak Empire State Manufacturing survey for May.

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May 14th Market Commentary

May 14th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 9/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 30 points as US equities stayed muted amid a mixed inflation reading, as investors counted down to Wednesday’s more heavily anticipated look into consumer prices. New data this morning showed wholesale prices increased 0.5% month over month in April, above the 0.3% consensus expected. That was according to the latest release of the Producer Price Index, which measures prices producers receive for goods produced. But the release also showed March’s monthly price increase was revised lower to a decrease of 0.1% from an initial reading of a 0.2% increase. The mixed bag helped Wall Street largely shrug off the report.

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May 13th Market Commentary

May 13th Market Commentary

MBS prices are up about 4/32 this morning while the DOW is down about 15 points as attention turned to the coming inflation report seen as a potential starting point for interest rate cuts. This week brings a flood of economic releases as potential catalysts, with the Consumer Price Index update on Wednesday the star. There are no economic reports scheduled for release today.

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